China's Growth Number: Reading the Target, Not the Teacup

The annual ritual is complete: China announced a growth target, and the discourse immediately split into the bear parade and the bull parade, both marching on the same number.

The bear take. “The target is a fantasy.” Possible! But “the target is a fantasy” is also what was said last year, and the year before, and the discourse is a subscription service: it renews regardless of outcome.

The bull take. “The target shows confidence.” The target shows a target. Reading confidence into a government target is like reading mood into a weather forecast — the forecast is not happy or sad, it’s just the forecast.

The actual point, which nobody made. A growth target is a planning document, not a promise. Its purpose is to coordinate expectations across thousands of institutions. Interpreting it as either a guarantee or a lie is the same mistake in two costumes: treating a coordination device as a claim.

My take: the takes are energetic and wrong in both directions, which is a fair reflection of the underlying uncertainty. The Doctor’s rule for China coverage: quote the number, skip the augury, and never hire a commentator who says “Beijing wants us to believe.” Beijing wants the number coordinated, not believed.